0 How to Invest in Real Estate in Uncertain Times

By Jason S. Weissman | Commercial Observer | December 10, 2020

At the flip of a switch, COVID-19 created a paradigm shift in real estate investment. Pension fund darlings turned ice cold overnight. Risk profiles turned on their heads. The four, classic real estate investment strategies of Core, Core-Plus, Value-Add and Opportunistic are no longer definitive. COVID-19 also provided the collective built environment with a valuable stress test, revealing new risk variables.

These risk variables include two major components of uncertainty: migration trends and how people will work in the future. In order for real estate investors to stay competitive during the current climate and deliver compelling value, they will have to make educated bets on an unpredictable future. The good news: centralized information and greater visibility into data is on our side.

The pandemic upended the impending population growth of major North American cities, leaving the future of urbanization a guessing game. Chris Nebenzahl, editorial director at Yardi Matrix, recently explained that many large metros underwent five years of outward migration in just six months. Additionally, according to a recent economic report by Upwork, between 14 and 23 million Americans plan to move from urban to suburban and tertiary markets.

To appreciate how urbanization will rebound, multiple questions need to be answered. How will business travel change? Are new shopping trends here to stay? Will people work remotely in perpetuity? There is no magic remedy, and these uncertain times make all questions more challenging to answer.

Even during the most demanding of times, we must not abandon the tried-and-true methods of evaluating real estate investment opportunities. Evolving commercial occupancy rates, consumer trends and new work routines will continue to be the primary drivers of real estate investment models.

The most resilient assets throughout the pandemic have been real estate occupied by credit tenants in the net-leased retail and industrial categories, along with the single-family sector (SFR space) and multifamily assets within secondary cities and suburbia. According to the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, industrial REITs are up 18.5 percent year to date. Data centers are up 37.86 percent, and single-family REITs are up 4.1 percent. Conversely (and not surprisingly), office REITs are down 27 percent, while lodging and resorts are down an astounding 45.58 percent.

How will the real estate investment ecosystem realign? In all times, and specifically during uncertain ones, financiers should profoundly evaluate risk. Investors should be extremely conservative on appreciation and the risks of cash flow with fluctuating tenancy. “Attention should be paid as much to what can go wrong (risk) as to what can go right (return),” Seth Klarman noted in his book, “Margin of Safety.”

As the real estate investment community treads forward, it will have to deep dive into the supply and demand of the asset types under consideration, and then attempt to make a future assumption on that supply and demand. Look back 15 to 20 years to review the historical rents, expenses and occupancy rates. This valuable information will enable investors to make assumptions based on market statistics and performance. The thoughtful collection of fundamental data can be developed into a strategic investment strategy to weather all cycles.

Despite these uncertain times, investors will make bets on core market central business districts, specifically the hospitality and retail properties located within them. These investment types have high risk, but also embody the potential for high returns. However, it is much too early to make predictions about either asset class or primary CBDs. In the immediate short term, cities are going to lose inhabitants. Taking the long view, though, I deeply believe in the attraction of big cities and the benefits of their walkability, convenience, lifestyle, and their culture that fosters innovation.

In an uncertain investment climate, invest in what you understand the best. Seek sticky cash flow and make sure leverage is low. Market timing is paramount, but staying power is just as important. To paraphrase Warren Buffett, “Don’t buy a stock unless you’re willing to hold it for 10 years.” Even good investments with a sound investment thesis have risk. Risks are diminished if you have time on your side.

Jason S. Weissman is founder and CEO of Boston Realty Advisors, the largest full-service independent real estate brokerage and advisory firm in Massachusetts.

0 Cape Air targets Boston’s Long Wharf as a seaplane docking spot

Seaplanes are making waves in Boston.  Boston Harbor last saw seaplanes in the 1940’s and as the congestion continues worsen it appears they will be making a comeback for trips to NYC.

Cape Air targets Boston’s Long Wharf as a seaplane docking spot

The Boston skyline is viewed from Long Wharf.
GARY HIGGINS

By   – Real Estate Editor, Boston Business Journal 

 

Cape Air has its eyes on a new location on Boston Harbor to launch its long-planned seaplane service between Boston and New York: Long Wharf.

Officials from the Hyannis-based airline will host a public meeting Wednesday, Dec. 18 at the Long Wharf Marriott to discuss “a proposal to serve Boston Waterboat Marina, 66 Long Wharf, with a 9-seat seaplane airline service available to the public.”

Andrew Bonney, senior vice president of planning for Cape Air, said in an interview that the airline has worked with officials including the Federal Aviation Administration, the U.S. Coast Guard and the Boston Planning and Development Agency regarding launching a Cessna Caravan Amphibian between Boston and New York.

Cape Air flights would load at the tip of Long Wharf before taxiing one mile out to Boston Logan International Airport’s Runway 1432 and taking off, Bonney said. The flights would use the same spot for landing.

Before the service can launch, Cape Air would need to obtain a license amendment from the BPDA, which owns Long Wharf.

“The BPDA has asked Cape Air to conduct a community process, including stakeholder outreach, about their proposal for Long Wharf before anything can move forward,” spokesperson Bonnie McGilpin said in a statement. “If there is support for the proposal, BPDA would need to amend the license for Long Wharf to reflect these uses and that would require approval by the BPDA Board.”

If Cape Air receives the city license amendment and other federal regulatory requirements, Bonney hopes to launch by springtime.

A one-way flight would cost between $320 and $340 to travel the 191 miles between the two cities, according to Bonney. Traveling by plane or train from Boston to New York typically takes around three and a half hours, while a seaplane can go downtown to downtown in one hour, he said.

In the 1920s, seaplanes going between Boston and New York would dock behind South Station. But seaplane service hasn’t existed in Boston since the 1940s.

“We think it’s really exciting to be able to bring back this mode of transportation to the city of Boston,” Bonney said.

Catherine Carlock can be reached at ccarlock@bizjournals.com. Follow her on Twitter at @BosBizCatherine 

0 Law firm to move out of One Post Office Square, citing renovation work

The biggest isn’t always the best.  Fortunately, Boston is chock-full of great work space. What strategies are you solving for & how can we help?

Law firm to move out of One Post Office Square, citing renovation work

One Post Office Square in Boston.
W. MARC BERNSAU

By   – Law and Money Reporter, Boston Business Journal 

Nelson Mullins Riley & Scarborough LLP plans to move its Boston office to One Financial Center next year, in part to avoid the disruption caused by construction in its current home at One Post Office Square, according to its local managing partner.

The South Carolina-based law firm is taking approximately 43,000 square feet on the 35th and 36th floors of One Financial, the office tower across Atlantic Avenue from South Station, said Peter Haley, the firm’s leader in Boston.

It’s about the same amount of space that it currently occupies at One Post Office Square, where it’s been for most of the decade-plus it’s been in the Boston market. But the Post Office Square building is undergoing a major renovation, including a new-look glass exterior, a large-scale interior makeover, and a significant expansion of rentable space. The project is being co-developed by JLL and Anchorline Partners.

According to Haley, had Nelson Mullins stayed in Post Office Square, it would have needed to move at least once, and perhaps twice, within the building over the short term to accommodate the makeover. The firm’s leaders were wary of that level of disruption. JLL “was great” about trying to find a solution, but the firm “couldn’t quite find something that was right for us,” Haley said.

Nelson Mullins expects to move into One Financial in 2020, potentially in August. Haley anticipates the new space will have about 65 offices, with a more efficient, glass-filled floor plan compared to its current location.

The law firm’s local headcount has changed significantly in recent years. In early 2015, it had 60 attorneys in Boston, but by the next year that figure had dropped to 35 after teams of attorneys left for K&L Gates LLP and LeClairRyan PC.

Since then, however, Haley and the firm’s leadership have been aggressive about wooing partners from other Boston law offices. Its local headcount is back up to 53, according to Haley. The new recruits hail from a variety of firms and practice areas: This year alone, its additions include intellectual property attorneys from Pepper Hamilton LLP and Mintz and a litigator from State Street Corp.

“We’ve had a nice ability to attract lawyers from around the city,” Haley said.

That level of growth is reflected in the firm’s recent financials. In 2014, its $298 million in revenue put it outside the 100 highest-grossing law firms in the U.S., according to American Lawyer Media data. In 2018, it grossed more than $400 million across its more than 20 offices, earning it a ranking as No. 87 in the country.

The new address and new names aren’t the only changes coming to Nelson Mullins. Later this month, Haley is stepping down as office managing partner in favor of his colleague, Brian Moore. Haley has been the office’s leader since 2013 and felt a change in leadership would be good for the future of the firm. He plans to return to his practice full-time, although he will hold onto some managerial responsibilities at the firmwide level.

“The turnover’s very helpful in terms of developing and building leadership within the office,” he said. “Just having one person staying there for 10 or 15 years, I think you miss out on opportunities to build future leaders.”

0 Empty store space in Downtown Crossing may become offices

Does the Amazon effect play into retail vacancy in Boston?  We, in short yes.  How we shop and what we shop for online has changed and will continue to do so.  Retail is still vibrant and strong, but not all retail spaces are created equal.  Some historical retails spaces are better suited for office which in part has to do their size and proximity to public transit.

An example of this transformation is the Cambridge Side Galleria Mall in the East Cambridge.  The red hot Kendal office and lab market will continue to gobble up under performing assets.

An empty storefront near 560 Washington St.

By Tim Logan GLOBE STAFF  APRIL 12, 2019

One of the biggest retail spaces in Downtown Crossing may soon become home to offices.

The Boston Planning & Development Agency on Thursday approved plans by the owner of Lafayette City Center to convert much of its long-empty ground floor into office space, perhaps to house the state agency that handles workers’ compensation claims.

The move by veteran Boston developers The Abbey Group highlights the soft market for large-format retailers as they face mounting online competition. The change also has something to do with the particular quirks of the building, which was built in the 1980s as the inward-facing Lafayette Place Mall before being repositioned as storefronts with office space above.

The proposed change also is raising concerns in some quarters about a block and a half of Washington Street in the busy shopping district being converted to office space.

Much of the building’s ground floor — about 75,000 square feet — has been empty for at least 15 years. The last sizable tenant, an Eddie Bauer outlet store, closed in early 2016. Abbey and its brokers have struggled to fill the space. Among other challenges, the first floor is as much as 7 feet higher than street level in places — a design quirk of the old indoor mall and its underground garage.

“We think of ourselves as creative developers who apply innovative thinking to problems like this,” Abbey chief operating officer David Epstein said. “It simply isn’t feasible” to use the space for retail, he said.

 

But Abbey has leased more than 500,000 square feet of office space on the floors above street level, mostly to tech companies. When the state began looking for 33,700 square feet to house its Division of Industrial Accidents — which needs to move out of the Government Center Garage ahead of a redevelopment there — Abbey offered up the ground floor.

A spokesman for the state’s real estate agency said it received five proposals for the office, including Lafayette Center. A final decision has not been made, he said.

Workers’ compensation courtrooms may not be the sort of retail and restaurant Downtown Crossing is known for, but it fits with other legal offices around the neighborhood, said Rosemarie Sansone, president of the Downtown Boston Business Improvement District.

“This place has been empty for 20 years,” she said. “They found an unusual and interesting use for it. This is all good.”

Still, the shift comes as several key locations sit empty along Washington Street, from Lafayette Center to the long-shuttered Barnes & Noble (which is now being renovated by a new owner) to a cluster of empty storefronts at Washington and Bromfield streets that have been largely dark since plans to build a skyscraper there stalled in 2016.

Sansone acknowledged the empty buildings but also noted that several restaurants and stores have opened in and around Downtown Crossing in recent years. Building owners and the BID, she said, are aiming to bring in more retailers to cater to residents and workers who fill nearby office towers, including a day care center, pet stores, and more home goods stores. She also said Trader Joe’s is considering opening a grocery store in the neighborhood, though a Trader Joe’s spokeswoman would not confirm that.

 

Some landlords on Washington Street, Sansone said, are being patient, waiting for the right tenant.

“There have been some deliberate attempts to make sure that whatever comes is going to be successful, that it’s what people want,” she said.

One BPDA board member Thursday asked Epstein about the wisdom of leaving retail space like Lafayette Center vacant for years, especially given the effect on foot traffic for neighboring businesses.

“It’s a form of job destruction,” Carol Downs said. “I don’t really understand why this space was let to stay empty for so long.”

Epstein said the market has shifted away from the larger-format retailers it originally envisioned would lease at Lafayette City Center, and the technical challenges of opening in the building were too great for smaller stores. Filling two-thirds of the long empty storefront with office workers will bring foot traffic and, he hopes, will make it easier to rent the rest of the vacant space.

“We’re excited about the prospect,” Epstein said.

Tim Logan can be reached at tim.logan@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter at @bytimlogan.

0 Vegan Restaurant to Open at 101 Seaport Blvd

Seaport restaurant

Credit: Boston Business Journal

New eats are coming to 101 Seaport Boulevard. This is not your traditional eatery, but rather vegan style with roots in NYC.

A BBJ article notes, “Chef Chloe Coscarelli — known for being the first vegan chef to win the Food Network’s popular reality show “Cupcake Wars” — and co-partner Samantha Wasser have plans to open a 48-seat restaurant at 101 Seaport Boulevard. The newly opened 17-story glass office is home to accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers.”

You can read more on the BBJ.

0 Godfrey Hotel in Boston Set to Open its Doors

Boston Godfrey Hotel

Credit: Travel Weekly

DTX is getting its newest amenity online next week, The Godfrey Hotel opening at 505 Washington Street.

“The 242-room Godfrey Hotel Boston was redeveloped out of the adjoining Armory and Blake buildings in the city’s Downtown Crossing district, about a block east of Boston Common…This spring, the property will open a street-level cafe by George Howell Coffee, a local roaster. A 4,600-square-foot restaurant i scheduled to open this summer, but the Godfrey hasn’t announced the restaurateur yet,” according to TravelWeekly.

You can read more on Travel Weekly.

 

0 Most Desirable Office Space for Startups

How does the start up sector communicate with the real estate word?

startup office space

Credit: RE:Tech

According to a RE:Tech Snap Shot study of fifty New York tech startups, “Brokers who forge an early connection with these startups stand to profit handsomely if the firms take off. Several real estate firms are among the fastest-growing tech startups in New York, attracting millions in venture funding…The research survey also found that the vast majority of tech startups favor flexible, short-term leases. Nearly 80 percent of respondents said they favor a sublease over a lease. About 60 percent said their ideal lease term is between three and five years, while the remaining 40 percent preferred a lease term of between one and two years. None of the respondents were keen on five-year-plus lease.”

You can read the full results on RE:Tech.

0 Cloud Computing’s Impact on Today’s Office Space

Office space is used far differently today than 25 years ago. Production is no longer measured by how much time you log in a seat at your desk, but rather what is accomplished by the day’s end. Some jobs still require sitting in a specific seat — lab technicians and receptionists are the two that come to mind — but those restrictions are becoming less and less applicable to the majority of professions.  At our company we offer a wide variety of options for our team members, much of which is a direct result enhanced virtual desktops. Only a few years ago, you had to sit at your desk in order to access your computer and critical electronic files; now your electronic desktop can follow you.

co-working and shared office space infographic

Credit: MBACentral

An article from MBAcentral on coworking spaces observes “the changing nature of business and the workforce [noting] 4 in 10 U.S. workers…will be temps, freelancers or contractors, 8 in 10 Large corporations [are] planning to increase use of flexible workforce, Nearly 90% of businesses have already adopted some cloud computing. [and] 80% of companies offer flexible working arrangements, including telework.”

You can read the full article, here.

0 Commercial Real Estate Portfolio for Macy’s Exceeds Value of Business

Macy's flagship store in NYC

Credit: Bizjournals

When the value of your real estate exceeds the value of your business what do you do?  Macy’s investors are putting pressure on the retail to separate the entities.

According to the Bizjournals website, Macy’s investors are considering “spinning off the 556 stores it owns nationwide, including its 34th Street store in midtown Manhattan, into a separate company…By spinning off the real estate as a separate business, Macy’s would be able to rent out space or even sell part of its holdings at a time when commercial real estate market is hot, and brick-and-mortar retailers are facing greater competition from online sellers. Analysts have suggested the upper floors of Macy’s in Herald Square could be sold off as condos or a hotel.”

You can read more about Macy’s estimated $21 billion real estate portfolio on the Bizjournal.com/newyork.